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Market Intelligence · Q2 2026

The state of AI this quarter.

Our first edition is a comprehensive baseline: the flagship reports and standing frameworks that define where AI stands now, from the frontier labs, the major consulting firms, independent research and the governance bodies. Every figure is quoted from its primary source.

Covering April to June 2026 · Published 2 July 2026
Download the full brief (PDF) See what's inside
Verify before you cite. Every figure below is quoted from its primary source and linked. Entries are summarised for brevity, and sources may revise their reports after publication. Always open the linked source and verify a figure before you cite it or act on it.

This quarter's new releases

The signals that moved

This first edition maps the full landscape, from this quarter's new flagship reports to the standing frameworks that anchor AI governance. From the next edition, each quarterly release focuses on the new flagship research of that quarter.

  • capability Stanford HAI Organisational AI adoption reached 88%, and capability is now racing ahead of our ability to govern it.
  • adoption Microsoft Organisational factors drive more than twice the AI impact of individual mindset, 67% versus 32%.
  • labor BCG 74% of white-collar workers now use AI regularly, but a clear strategy adds 25 points of impact where tools alone add about 5.
  • labor Anthropic 86% of Claude users report productivity gains, and the heaviest adopters are the most optimistic about their careers.
  • governance KPMG Multi-agent orchestration doubled to 18% in a single quarter, yet only 26% of leaders can see what their AI costs to run.
  • adoption MIT CISR 34% of enterprises now run AI digital colleagues, but only 22% have done the workflow redesign that captures the value.

Cross-source synthesis

Four things every major source is converging on

Where consulting firms, frontier labs and independent research agree independently, the signal is strong. Each theme below is evidenced on the source pages that follow.

01

Governance and cost accountability are the number one gate

Security, oversight and now the economics of AI, not regulation or technology, gate the move to agentic AI.

KPMG: only 26% can see what their AI costs to run. CEO-accountable firms realise value 57% versus 21%.
KPMG, McKinsey, EY, Deloitte
02

Adoption is near universal, value is not

A divide separates the few who capture returns from the many who stall.

Stanford: 88% adoption. PwC: 20% of firms capture 74% of AI-driven returns. MIT CISR: 34% adopt, 22% redesign.
Stanford, PwC, MIT CISR, McKinsey
03

The bottleneck is the operating model, not the tools

Strategy, workflow redesign and enablement, not tool choice, decide who wins.

BCG: clear strategy adds 25 points of impact. Microsoft: org factors drive 2x the impact of individuals.
BCG, Microsoft, McKinsey
04

Autonomy is climbing in months, not years

Agentic capability is compounding fast, and worker sentiment is splitting as it does.

METR: time horizon doubling every 131 days. UK AISI: cyber capability doubling every 4.7 months. Anthropic: heavy adopters most optimistic, juniors most exposed.
METR, UK AISI, Anthropic, Microsoft
What this means for you

The market keeps proving the same point: the AI gap is organisational, not technical. Maturity, governance and enablement, not which tool you buy, separate the firms that capture value from the ones that stall.

Inside the full report

What the full brief covers

The downloadable brief carries every figure quoted verbatim from its primary source, with a link to verify it: 21 flagship sources across 5 sections. Here is what is inside.

01

Consulting firms

Big four plus McKinsey and BCG

What the major advisory firms are telling boards about AI adoption, value capture and governance.

6 sources
  • McKinsey The State of Organizations 2026 March 2026
  • Deloitte The State of AI in the Enterprise 2026: From Ambition to Activation January 2026
  • BCG AI at Work 2026 (4th ed.): Why Strategy Matters More Than Tools June 2026
  • PwC Want ROI from AI? Go for growth (AI performance study) April 2026
  • KPMG Global AI Pulse Survey, Q2 2026 June 2026
  • EY 2026 AI Sentiment Report (AI Sentiment Index Study) March 2026
02

Independent research

Academic and market data

Neutral, data-led reads on adoption, the value gap, and where enterprise AI money actually flows.

2 sources
  • Stanford HAI The AI Index 2026 Annual Report (9th ed.) April 2026
  • MIT CISR Leveraging Digital Colleagues for Enterprise Value April 2026
03

Frontier labs

Models and research

The technical frontier: the latest flagship model cards and research from the labs themselves.

6 sources
  • OpenAI GPT-5.5 System Card April 2026
  • Anthropic Anthropic Economic Index: Cadences June 2026
  • Google DeepMind Gemini 3.1 Pro, Model Card February 2026
  • Meta AI Introducing Muse Spark: Scaling Towards Personal Superintelligence April 2026
  • Microsoft 2026 Work Trend Index: Agents, Human Agency May 2026
  • DeepSeek mHC: Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections January 2026
04

Capability and safety

Measurement and risk

Independent measurement of how fast capability, and risk, is actually moving.

4 sources
  • Epoch AI Machine Learning Trends (dashboard) Updated June 2026
  • METR AI Task-Completion Time Horizon: Time Horizon 1.1 January 2026
  • UK AI Security Institute How fast is autonomous AI cyber capability advancing? May 2026
  • International AI Safety Report International AI Safety Report 2026 February 2026
05

Governance and standards

Frameworks and policy

The frameworks and standards an AI maturity and governance programme maps directly onto.

3 sources
  • NIST AI RMF AI Risk Management Framework (AI RMF 1.0), NIST AI 100-1 January 2023, standing reference
  • ISO/IEC 42001 ISO/IEC 42001:2023, AI Management System December 2023, standing reference
  • OECD.AI OECD AI Principles and Policy Observatory 2019, revised May 2024, standing reference
Download the full brief (PDF) 21 sources · every figure quoted and linked · complimentary

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